Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Ajer or Branthwaite?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Ajer averages 10.44 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Branthwaite averages 10.00 - a gap of 0.44 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Ajer and Branthwaite compare?

Accepted Answer

Ajer has logged 94 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 810 minutes (10.4 per 90). Branthwaite has logged 79 across 711 minutes (10.0 per 90). Ajer earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 4 of 9 appearances this season; Branthwaite earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 4 of 8 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Ajer is away at Brighton (FDR 4) and Branthwaite is at home to Coventry City (FDR 2) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Ajer and Branthwaite deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

Kristoffer Ajer vs Jarrad Branthwaite DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Kristoffer Ajer vs Jarrad Branthwaite: DEFCON Analysis

Ajer vs Branthwaite Gameweek 10

Ajer has the better DEFCON rate and is £1.0m cheaper - is it a no-brainer for your squad?