Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Ajer or Murillo?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Ajer averages 10.44 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Murillo averages 10.12 - a gap of 0.32 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Ajer and Murillo compare?

Accepted Answer

Ajer has logged 94 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 810 minutes (10.4 per 90). Murillo has logged 91 across 809 minutes (10.1 per 90). Ajer earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 4 of 9 appearances this season; Murillo earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 6 of 9 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Ajer is away at Brighton (FDR 4) and Murillo is at home to Man City (FDR 4) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Ajer and Murillo deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

Kristoffer Ajer vs Murillo DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Kristoffer Ajer vs Murillo: DEFCON Analysis

Ajer vs Murillo Gameweek 10

Ajer has the better DEFCON rate and is £1.0m cheaper - is it a no-brainer for your squad?