Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Ajer or Virgil?

Accepted Answer

Ajer is the stronger DEFCON profile at 10.44 actions per 90 against 9.44 for Virgil - a gap of 1.00 per 90. Over a 38-match season that difference works out to roughly 38 extra defensive contribution actions before any attacking upside is factored in.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Ajer and Virgil compare?

Accepted Answer

Ajer has logged 94 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 810 minutes (10.4 per 90). Virgil has logged 85 across 810 minutes (9.4 per 90). Ajer earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 4 of 9 appearances this season; Virgil earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 5 of 9 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Ajer is away at Brighton (FDR 4) and Virgil is away at Crystal Palace (FDR 2) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

Ajer has the DEFCON edge at 10.44 per 90 versus 9.44. That advantage costs £1.9m if Ajer is dearer - work out whether the edge is worth the outlay in your specific squad. On DEFCON grounds alone Ajer is the better profile, but £1.9m spent elsewhere may return more depending on where you are stretched.

Kristoffer Ajer vs Virgil DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Kristoffer Ajer vs Virgil: DEFCON Analysis

Ajer vs Virgil Gameweek 10

Ajer has the better DEFCON rate and is £1.9m cheaper - is it a no-brainer for your squad?