Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Ballard or Virgil?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Ballard averages 9.80 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Virgil averages 9.44 - a gap of 0.36 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Ballard and Virgil compare?

Accepted Answer

Ballard has logged 49 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 450 minutes (9.8 per 90). Virgil has logged 85 across 810 minutes (9.4 per 90). Ballard earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 3 of 5 appearances this season; Virgil earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 5 of 9 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Ballard is at home to Chelsea (FDR 4) and Virgil is away at Crystal Palace (FDR 2) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Ballard and Virgil deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

Daniel Ballard vs Virgil DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Daniel Ballard vs Virgil: DEFCON Analysis

Ballard vs Virgil Gameweek 10

Ballard has the better DEFCON rate and is £1.7m cheaper - is it a no-brainer for your squad?