Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Botman or Ajer?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Botman averages 11.29 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Ajer averages 10.44 - a gap of 0.85 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Botman and Ajer compare?

Accepted Answer

Botman has logged 79 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 630 minutes (11.3 per 90). Ajer has logged 94 across 810 minutes (10.4 per 90). Botman earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 5 of 7 appearances this season; Ajer earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 4 of 9 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Botman is away at Fulham (FDR 3) and Ajer is away at Brighton (FDR 4) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Botman and Ajer deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

Sven Botman vs Kristoffer Ajer DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Sven Botman vs Kristoffer Ajer: DEFCON Analysis

Botman vs Ajer Gameweek 10

Botman has the DEFCON edge but costs £0.5m more than Ajer. Where should the money go?