Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Hill or Tarkowski?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Hill averages 11.22 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Tarkowski averages 10.44 - a gap of 0.78 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Hill and Tarkowski compare?

Accepted Answer

Hill has logged 101 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 810 minutes (11.2 per 90). Tarkowski has logged 94 across 810 minutes (10.4 per 90). Hill earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 5 of 9 appearances this season; Tarkowski earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 5 of 9 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Hill is away at Ipswich Town (FDR 2) and Tarkowski is at home to Coventry City (FDR 2) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Hill and Tarkowski deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

James Hill vs James Tarkowski DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

James Hill vs James Tarkowski: DEFCON Analysis

Hill vs Tarkowski Gameweek 10

Hill has the better DEFCON rate and is £0.7m cheaper - is it a no-brainer for your squad?