Question 1

Who has the stronger DEFCON rate: Murillo or Ballard?

Accepted Answer

Barely anything in it. Murillo averages 10.12 defensive contribution actions per 90 and Ballard averages 9.80 - a gap of 0.32 that is inside the natural noise of any per-90 metric. On the workload alone this is a coin toss and the decision should rest on fixture, price and attacking output rather than DEFCON.

Question 2

How do the raw defensive workloads of Murillo and Ballard compare?

Accepted Answer

Murillo has logged 91 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across 809 minutes (10.1 per 90). Ballard has logged 49 across 450 minutes (9.8 per 90). Murillo earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 6 of 9 appearances this season; Ballard earned the +2pt DEFCON bonus in 3 of 5 appearances this season. Higher raw counts reflect a higher defensive workload; higher per-90 rates reflect efficiency at sustaining that workload.

Question 3

Does the Gameweek 10 fixture change the DEFCON case?

Accepted Answer

Murillo is at home to Man City (FDR 4) and Ballard is at home to Chelsea (FDR 4) in Gameweek 10. DEFCON output is action-based rather than result-based, so a tough fixture does not shrink the base rate the way it might reduce a clean sheet probability. That said, both players are more likely to see defensive volume in tougher matches - the DEFCON case can actually be marginally stronger against stronger opposition.

Question 4

Which defender should I pick for Gameweek 10 on DEFCON grounds?

Accepted Answer

The DEFCON workloads are too close to call. Both Murillo and Ballard deliver similar defensive contribution rates, so the pick should come down to price, fixtures and attacking output rather than DEFCON. On the defensive contributions alone this is a genuine coin toss.

Murillo vs Daniel Ballard DEFCON: Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10

Murillo vs Daniel Ballard: DEFCON Analysis

Murillo vs Ballard Gameweek 10

Murillo has the DEFCON edge but costs £0.8m more than Ballard. Where should the money go?