FPLDifferential Analysis

Is Jacob Murphy a good differential for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 38?

Gameweek 38 · Newcastle · MID · £5.9m

J.Murphy
MIDNewcastle

J.Murphy

Newcastle

81

Pts

3.5

Form

£5.9m

Price

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Ownership

0.6%

Form (last 6 GWs)

3.5

Expected pts, GW38

3.5

Transfers in this GW

1,292

FPL ownership

0.6% of managers own J.Murphy

0%100%

Scale: Strong differential ≤5% ownership · Differential ≤10% · Mild ≤20% · above that is template territory.

Fixture run

GW38

Fulham

Fulham

Away

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL

At 0.6% ownership, J.Murphy has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified.

  • Ownership: 0.6% - true differential territory
  • Expected points: 3.5 xPts for GW38 - low return projection weakens the differential case
  • Fixture run: mixed picture over the final gameweek of the season

Differential captaincy

Differential captaincy note: captaining a 0.6% owned player amplifies the rank impact of any return. At this ownership level, a 12-point haul as captain would see you gain significantly on approximately 99% of managers. The risk is proportional - a blank from a differential captain costs no rank points directly, but represents a missed opportunity relative to managers who captained a higher-return option.

Weighing J.Murphy as a differential in GW38

The case for picking him

  • Ownership: at 0.6%, a single good return creates a meaningful rank advantage over the 99% of managers who do not own him.
  • Availability: no fitness concerns - a differential who misses through injury is the worst outcome.

The risks of the differential play

  • Form: 3.5 pts/game - below what you want from a differential who needs to deliver to justify the squad spot.
  • Expected points: only 3.5 xPts projected for GW38. A differential needs some return floor to be viable - the model does not back one this week.

J.Murphy Differential Analysis Gameweek 38

Click a question below for the full breakdown.

CF
At 0.6% ownership, J.Murphy has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified. Click a question below for the full differential breakdown.

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