FPLDifferential Analysis

Is Murillo a good differential for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 7?

Gameweek 7 · Nott'm Forest · DEF · £5.5m

Murillo
DEFNott'm Forest

Murillo

Nott'm Forest

23

Pts

3.3

Form

£5.5m

Price

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Ownership

2.2%

Form (5 GWs)

3.3

Expected pts, GW7

3.3

Transfers in this GW

296

FPL ownership

2.2% of managers own Murillo

0%100%

Scale: Strong differential ≤5% ownership · Differential ≤10% · Mild ≤20% · above that is template territory.

Fixture run

GW7

Arsenal

Arsenal

Home

GW8

Ipswich Town

Ipswich Town

Away

GW9

Brentford

Brentford

Away

GW10

Man City

Man City

Home

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL

At 2.2% ownership, Murillo has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified.

  • Ownership: 2.2% - true differential territory
  • Expected points: 3.3 xPts for GW7 - low return projection weakens the differential case
  • Fixture run: 2 favourable fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks

Differential captaincy

Differential captaincy note: captaining a 2.2% owned player amplifies the rank impact of any return. At this ownership level, a 12-point haul as captain would see you gain significantly on approximately 98% of managers. The risk is proportional - a blank from a differential captain costs no rank points directly, but represents a missed opportunity relative to managers who captained a higher-return option.

Weighing Murillo as a differential in GW7

The case for picking him

  • Ownership: at 2.2%, a single good return creates a meaningful rank advantage over the 98% of managers who do not own him.
  • Fixture run: 2 manageable fixtures ahead. The schedule supports holding a differential pick beyond this week.
  • Availability: no fitness concerns - a differential who misses through injury is the worst outcome.

The risks of the differential play

  • Form: 3.3 pts/game - below what you want from a differential who needs to deliver to justify the squad spot.
  • Expected points: only 3.3 xPts projected for GW7. A differential needs some return floor to be viable - the model does not back one this week.
  • Low ownership may reflect consensus: when most managers avoid a player, it is worth understanding why before framing it as an opportunity.

Murillo Differential Analysis Gameweek 7

Click a question below for the full breakdown.

CF
At 2.2% ownership, Murillo has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified. Click a question below for the full differential breakdown.

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