Question 1

What does the transfer market look like for selling Dubravka and buying Raya in Gameweek 3?

Accepted Answer

In Gameweek 3, 141,575 managers have moved into David Raya while 82,816 have left Martin Dubravka. The net direction of travel is clear: the FPL market is pricing David Raya as the better short-term asset. Transfer activity of this scale is typically driven by a combination of fixture awareness, expected returns, and ownership risk - all three of which feed into the analysis below.

Question 2

What is the ownership risk of keeping Dubravka over Raya in Gameweek 3?

Accepted Answer

David Raya is currently held by 37.8% of FPL managers against 18.2% for Martin Dubravka. A 19.6 percentage point ownership gap means that if David Raya returns a double-figure haul in Gameweek 3 and you are still holding Dubravka, you hand ground directly to that 37.8% ownership block. At scale, that rank movement is significant. The decision is not just about points - it is about where you land relative to the field.

Question 3

What is the budget impact of selling Dubravka for Raya?

Accepted Answer

This transfer costs £2.0m extra, moving from Martin Dubravka at £4.0m to David Raya at £6.0m. That upgrade cost needs to be funded from elsewhere in your squad or your bank. The question is whether £6.0m represents a price point that justifies the outlay relative to the expected return differential. At 6.0 projected points for David Raya against 0.0 for Dubravka, the model backs the premium this gameweek.

Question 4

How do the fixtures compare for Dubravka and Raya heading into Gameweek 3?

Accepted Answer

Martin Dubravka actually holds the better immediate fixture in Gameweek 3: Nott'm Forest (A) rated Medium, compared to David Raya facing Chelsea (H) rated Hard. If fixture logic alone is driving the 141,575 transfers into Raya, the numbers do not fully support that rationale this week. The case for this transfer may be stronger as a medium-term hold rather than an immediate Gameweek 3 punt.

Should I sell Martin Dubravka for David Raya? FPL Transfer Analysis Gameweek 3

Martin Dubravka vs David Raya: Gameweek 3 Transfer Analysis

Dubravka vs Raya Gameweek 3

This is a £2.0m premium move. Is the upgrade worth it for your rank?