FPLDifferential Analysis

Is Francisco Evanilson a good differential for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 1?

Gameweek 1 · Bournemouth · FWD · £6.0m

Evanilson
FWDBournemouth

Evanilson

Bournemouth

115

Pts

0.0

Form

£6.0m

Price

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Ownership

2.1%

Form (last 6 GWs)

0.0

Expected pts, GW1

2

Transfers in this GW

0

FPL ownership

2.1% of managers own Evanilson

0%100%

Scale: Strong differential ≤5% ownership · Differential ≤10% · Mild ≤20% · above that is template territory.

Fixture run

GW1

Man City

Man City

Away

GW2

Everton

Everton

Home

GW3

Newcastle

Newcastle

Away

GW4

Brentford

Brentford

Home

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL

At 2.1% ownership, Evanilson has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified.

  • Ownership: 2.1% - true differential territory
  • Expected points: 2 xPts for GW1 - low return projection weakens the differential case
  • Fixture run: 3 favourable fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks

Differential captaincy

Differential captaincy note: captaining a 2.1% owned player amplifies the rank impact of any return. At this ownership level, a 12-point haul as captain would see you gain significantly on approximately 98% of managers. The risk is proportional - a blank from a differential captain costs no rank points directly, but represents a missed opportunity relative to managers who captained a higher-return option.

Weighing Evanilson as a differential in GW1

The case for picking him

  • Ownership: at 2.1%, a single good return creates a meaningful rank advantage over the 98% of managers who do not own him.
  • Fixture run: 3 favourable fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks - a sustained differential window, not a one-week gamble.
  • Availability: no fitness concerns - a differential who misses through injury is the worst outcome.

The risks of the differential play

  • Form: 0.0 pts/game over the last 6 gameweeks - low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed.
  • Expected points: only 2 xPts projected for GW1. A differential needs some return floor to be viable - the model does not back one this week.

Evanilson Differential Analysis Gameweek 1

Click a question below for the full breakdown.

CF
At 2.1% ownership, Evanilson has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified. Click a question below for the full differential breakdown.

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