Question 1

What does the transfer market look like for selling Kelleher and buying Raya in Gameweek 4?

Accepted Answer

In Gameweek 4, 35,021 managers have moved into David Raya while 8,076 have left Caoimhín Kelleher. The net direction of travel is clear: the FPL market is pricing David Raya as the better short-term asset. Transfer activity of this scale is typically driven by a combination of fixture awareness, expected returns, and ownership risk - all three of which feed into the analysis below.

Question 2

What is the ownership risk of keeping Kelleher over Raya in Gameweek 4?

Accepted Answer

David Raya is currently held by 38.6% of FPL managers against 6.9% for Caoimhín Kelleher. A 31.7 percentage point ownership gap means that if David Raya returns a double-figure haul in Gameweek 4 and you are still holding Kelleher, you hand ground directly to that 38.6% ownership block. At scale, that rank movement is significant. The decision is not just about points - it is about where you land relative to the field.

Question 3

What is the budget impact of selling Kelleher for Raya?

Accepted Answer

This transfer costs £1.0m extra, moving from Caoimhín Kelleher at £5.0m to David Raya at £6.0m. That upgrade cost needs to be funded from elsewhere in your squad or your bank. The question is whether £6.0m represents a price point that justifies the outlay relative to the expected return differential. At 4.0 projected points for David Raya against 3.7 for Kelleher, the model backs the premium this gameweek.

Question 4

How do the fixtures compare for Kelleher and Raya heading into Gameweek 4?

Accepted Answer

Caoimhín Kelleher faces Bournemouth (A) (Medium) and David Raya draws Sunderland (A) (Medium) in Gameweek 4. The fixture comparison is broadly level - neither player holds a clear schedule advantage this week. When fixtures are neutral, expected points (3.7 vs 4.0) and form (3.7 vs 4.0) become the deciding metrics. The full AI verdict factors in all of these simultaneously.

Should I sell Caoimhín Kelleher for David Raya? FPL Transfer Analysis Gameweek 4

Caoimhín Kelleher vs David Raya: Gameweek 4 Transfer Analysis

Kelleher vs Raya Gameweek 4

This is a £1.0m premium move. Is the upgrade worth it for your rank?