FPLDifferential Analysis

Is Ronald Araujo a good differential for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4?

Gameweek 4 · Liverpool · DEF · £5.4m

Araujo
DEFLiverpool

Araujo

Liverpool

9

Pts

3.0

Form

£5.4m

Price

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Ownership

2.3%

Form (3 GWs)

3.0

Expected pts, GW4

3

Transfers in this GW

17,903

FPL ownership

2.3% of managers own Araujo

0%100%

Scale: Strong differential ≤5% ownership · Differential ≤10% · Mild ≤20% · above that is template territory.

Fixture run

GW4

Fulham

Fulham

Home

GW5

Bournemouth

Bournemouth

Away

GW6

Man City

Man City

Home

GW7

Brentford

Brentford

Away

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL

At 2.3% ownership, Araujo has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified.

  • Ownership: 2.3% - true differential territory
  • Expected points: 3 xPts for GW4 - low return projection weakens the differential case
  • Fixture run: 3 favourable fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks

Differential captaincy

Differential captaincy note: captaining a 2.3% owned player amplifies the rank impact of any return. At this ownership level, a 12-point haul as captain would see you gain significantly on approximately 98% of managers. The risk is proportional - a blank from a differential captain costs no rank points directly, but represents a missed opportunity relative to managers who captained a higher-return option.

Weighing Araujo as a differential in GW4

The case for picking him

  • Ownership: at 2.3%, a single good return creates a meaningful rank advantage over the 98% of managers who do not own him.
  • Fixture run: 3 favourable fixtures over the next 4 gameweeks - a sustained differential window, not a one-week gamble.
  • Availability: no fitness concerns - a differential who misses through injury is the worst outcome.

The risks of the differential play

  • Form: 3.0 pts/game - below what you want from a differential who needs to deliver to justify the squad spot.
  • Expected points: only 3 xPts projected for GW4. A differential needs some return floor to be viable - the model does not back one this week.

Araujo Differential Analysis Gameweek 4

Click a question below for the full breakdown.

CF
At 2.3% ownership, Araujo has maximum differential potential. A single big return would be a rank-defining moment. The risk is that low ownership can reflect what the broader game has already assessed - the form and fixture data this week are the deciding factor on whether the gamble is justified. Click a question below for the full differential breakdown.

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